Are we really running out of oil Research Paper

Are we really running out of oil - Research Paper Example The OECD is made up of about 28 countries as of 2010, including countries such as the United States, United Kingdom, Korea, Japan, Canada, Germany, France, and Australia. The European Commission also â€Å"participates† in the work of the IEA as written or reflected in the IEA documents. From the perspective of the IEA, the summary situation is that â€Å"global production will peak one day, but that peak will be determined by factors affecting both supply and demand† (IEA, World Energy Outlook 2010 Executive Summary, 6). IEA data and forecasts indicate that oil demand (excludes demand for biofuels as opposed to fossil fuels), will continue to grow steadily to reach 99 million barrels per day (mb/d) by 2035 or 15 mb/d higher from 2009. In the IEA estimate, all of the net growth will come from non-member of the OECD, about half from China alone. The rise in demand from non-OECD member countries will be mainly driven by demand for transport fuels (IEA, World Energy Outloo k 2010 Executive Summary, 6). Given the estimated rise in demand to 99 million barrels per day by 2035, global oil production will only reach 96 million barrels per day (mb/day), 3 mb/d of which will come from gains in processing efficiency (IEA, World Energy Outlook 2010 Executive Summary, 6). ... ation of Petroleum Exporting (OPEC) countries to rise continuously up to 2035 under the â€Å"New Policies Scenario† (IEA, World Energy Outlook 2010 Executive Summary, 6). The increasing production from OPEC will boost OPEC’s share in total world oil production by about one-half (IEA, World Energy Outlook 2010 Executive Summary, 6). Iraq will account for the largest share in the increase of OPEC oil output, â€Å"commensurate with its large resource base† (IEA, World Energy Outlook 2010 Executive Summary, 6). The statements from the IEA suggest that the immediate decreases in output in oil production will be coming from the non-OPEC countries rather than from the OPEC countries. In clarifying what it means by â€Å"global production will peak one day, but that peak will be determined by factors affecting both supply and demand,† the IEA clarified that in the â€Å"New Policies† scenario, total world production does not peak before 2035 (although it will be â€Å"close to doing so†). However, according to the IEA, production can peak at 86 mb/d just before 2020 because of weaker demand that falls briskly thereafter because of lower prices (World Energy Outlook 2010 Executive Summary, 6). The scenario of a weak demand can come about because of environmental concerns related to global warming. In summary, the IEA said that â€Å"if governments act more vigorously than currently planned to encourage more efficient use of oil and development of alternatives, then demand for oil might begin to ease soon and, as a result, we might see a fairly early peak in oil production† (World Energy Outlook 2010 Executive Summary, 6). The IEA strongly emphasized that the early peak in this scenario will not be caused by resource constraints but by dwindling demand and price realignments